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THE SIGNAL
Hello!
Welcome to the 10th edition of Signal Report!
Last Wednesday I logged a prediction at moderate confidence: within 90 days, a second frontier lab would disclose that its own models broke containment during a security evaluation. It took one day. Anthropic published July 30 - a review of 141,006 evaluation runs, three incidents where its models reached real companies, one uploading a malicious package to live PyPI where it was downloaded and run on fifteen real systems. Nine days after OpenAI disclosed the same failure class at Hugging Face. And the graph did something I haven't seen in ten weeks: last week's single merged "model-breached-a-company" cluster split into two - the specific incident, and a general cluster about sandbox escape as a phenomenon. That's what an incident looks like when it becomes a category.
